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- improvstitute Offline
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MSNBC just made an interesting point...it is very possible that Clinton could win the popular vote, but still lose the delegate count in Texas. If you look at county map that Roy refered to, you will see that Obama won big in the counties in and around many of the metro areas (Dallas, Houston, Austin) where the voter turn out was huge. The number of deligates per precinct are awarded based on voter turnout in the 2006 elections.
Also, there were over 200 dems (vs. 8 reps) that turned out at my precinct in Williamson County. The chairman said that he has never seen more than 30 turn out total ad usually it is more like 7 or 8. It is pretty cool to see this kind of turnout in ultra conservative WilCo.
Also, there were over 200 dems (vs. 8 reps) that turned out at my precinct in Williamson County. The chairman said that he has never seen more than 30 turn out total ad usually it is more like 7 or 8. It is pretty cool to see this kind of turnout in ultra conservative WilCo.
-Ted
"I don't use the accident. I create the accident." -Jackson's Polyp
JUNK IMPROV
"I don't use the accident. I create the accident." -Jackson's Polyp
JUNK IMPROV
I went to the Caucus at O. Henry Junior High off Exposition
Is that the Tarrytown caucus that starkserious went to? I'm Canadian so I couldn't vote, but I had never seen a caucus before and I wanted to see if there would be any debating going on. Also I was curious what the political trend of that neighborhood is, since driving through it I see a lot of Hillary signs and the demographics are older than the rest of Austin. I was pleasantly suprised to see that the overwhelming majority of people caucusing appeared to be for Obama based on the buttons, stickers and shirts I saw. I only spotted three Hillary T Shirts in a crowd of at least a hundred.
The caucuses boost for Obama may turn out to be very significant, since MSNBC just called the popular primary vote of TX for Hillary, but by a narrow margin. It may well be that come morning the news could be that Hillary has won the popular vote but she and Obama split even the delegates. Depending on how delegates turn out to be apportioned, Obama could even lose the popular vote and tie the delegates. Clearly the process will go on to Pennsylvania. Which is what the Hilalry campaign wants, but democrats overall probably realize that the biggest winner tonight was John McCain. Not only does he close out his nomination but he can count on Hillary to provide help taking shots at Obama. Her 3 a.m. ad was apparently a big difference in Ohio, but it works just as well for McCain as for her. She even recently made a comment that came perilously close to giving McCain the edge over Obama in experience:
"I think that I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. Sen. John McCain has a lifetime of experience that he'd bring to the White House. And Sen. Obama has a speech he gave in 2002."
Pennslyvania will be a battleground state again in Nov., and this kind of negative talk may push democrats to broker an end to the competition.
The caucuses boost for Obama may turn out to be very significant, since MSNBC just called the popular primary vote of TX for Hillary, but by a narrow margin. It may well be that come morning the news could be that Hillary has won the popular vote but she and Obama split even the delegates. Depending on how delegates turn out to be apportioned, Obama could even lose the popular vote and tie the delegates. Clearly the process will go on to Pennsylvania. Which is what the Hilalry campaign wants, but democrats overall probably realize that the biggest winner tonight was John McCain. Not only does he close out his nomination but he can count on Hillary to provide help taking shots at Obama. Her 3 a.m. ad was apparently a big difference in Ohio, but it works just as well for McCain as for her. She even recently made a comment that came perilously close to giving McCain the edge over Obama in experience:
"I think that I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. Sen. John McCain has a lifetime of experience that he'd bring to the White House. And Sen. Obama has a speech he gave in 2002."
Pennslyvania will be a battleground state again in Nov., and this kind of negative talk may push democrats to broker an end to the competition.
- starkserious Offline
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Hillary wins TExas. Well it's no suprise, it was her's to lose..Actually good for the Democrats because of the massive voter turnout....McCain is 4 more years of the same crap..
- Daily KosNotice how John McCain won the nomination tonight, and yet he's gotten scant attention?
I'm sure he'll get plenty of coverage tomorrow as he embraces George Bush and gets that coveted endorsement from Mr. 19%. But that'll be good for us
Terrill...ific!
http://www.inthemoment.com
P.S."If you don't have a sense of humor, It's just not Funny."
http://www.inthemoment.com
P.S."If you don't have a sense of humor, It's just not Funny."
I just got home from my precinct caucus about twenty minutes ago. It was nuts. Took forever! Totally disorganized... but the good news is that Obama got 75% of our delegates... 68 or 69, of which I am one.
The resolutions we read (special thanks to Danu Uribe for her incredibly delightful resolution reading skillz) and debated over were a little on the ridiculous side. All kinds of programs people would like to see publicly funded. They were ridiculous... and kind of awesome, like publicly funding a system of bike paths to unite all of the cities in the country... for fun in good times, and evacuation routes in bad.
The resolutions we read (special thanks to Danu Uribe for her incredibly delightful resolution reading skillz) and debated over were a little on the ridiculous side. All kinds of programs people would like to see publicly funded. They were ridiculous... and kind of awesome, like publicly funding a system of bike paths to unite all of the cities in the country... for fun in good times, and evacuation routes in bad.
http://www.artofchange.com
Change is inevitable. Progress is not. Discover the difference YOU can make.
Change is inevitable. Progress is not. Discover the difference YOU can make.
- arthursimone Offline
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goddamn.
I wanted this thing over.
Look at the calendar, look at the math, and there's no way Hillary can win short of backroom dealing.
If the clinton campaign can turn squeaking out a razor-thin popular vote victory in their last-ditch 'firewall' state into a goddamn 'comeback' I will scream. I will just scream.
best case scenario:
Gore comes in riding an ent and endorses one or the other and says "now let's just get this the hell over with"
I wanted this thing over.
Look at the calendar, look at the math, and there's no way Hillary can win short of backroom dealing.
If the clinton campaign can turn squeaking out a razor-thin popular vote victory in their last-ditch 'firewall' state into a goddamn 'comeback' I will scream. I will just scream.
best case scenario:
Gore comes in riding an ent and endorses one or the other and says "now let's just get this the hell over with"
"I don't use the accident. I deny the accident." - Jackson Pollock
The goddamn best Austin improv classes!
The goddamn best Austin improv classes!
I just heard MSNBC's pundits describe the coming Pennsylvania primary as the Democrats' SuperBowl. Of course Super Tuesday back in February was supposed to be the Super Bowl, and then tonight was supposed to be the Super Bowl. They also referred to an idea being floated in the press that the way for Howard Dean to deal with the problem of Florida's and Michigan's wayward delegates would be for Florida to have a "do-over" primary, as if their earlier one never happened. We may never see a more interesting and absurd primary season as this one in the rest of our lives.
- Brian Boyko Offline
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Brian, I was happy to see you at Scholtz's. I think you taped some of my drunken reverie on the dance floor.Brian Boyko wrote:I'm a precinct delegate. For Obama. 19 Obama delegates to 9 Clinton delegates.
Onto the county convention, March 29th.
Last edited by Jeff on March 5th, 2008, 7:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
- mpbrockman Offline
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Oh, yes! Better living through legislation and public funding!!!Aden wrote:All kinds of programs people would like to see publicly funded.
Groan. This is why I throw up in my mouth a little when I vote Dem.
Of course voting GOP would have me projectile vomiting onto the polling place volunteers.
Either way bile is involved.
- Brian Boyko Offline
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I'm a precinct delegate. Was kinda weird.
See, alot of people were worried that if the other side got to be precinct secretary, that they would walk home with the ballots and throw away Obama or Hillary votes.
So in addition to making sure people didn't leave when the caucus took too long (I have a job! I have a term paper! I have a small, easily endangered child! I thought this was going to take 15 minutes!) the Obama supporters then had to convince people who caucused to stick around after the caucus to vote for precinct secretary, and because the Obama people were expecting tons of delegates (and we did get them, 19 to 9) we needed to convince people to stick around to be delegates or to be alternates so that we could have a full slate.
Let me tell you something about Obama's campaign on the ground. I showed up early to caucus - no plans on volunteering, but I ended up holding a sign, herding traffic so that people could park, making sure that people knew about the second vote, etc... even saved the life of a little kid who ran out into traffic with my Obama sign.
When people - or their kids - got hungry, the Obama campaign brought oatmeal bars. That's the sign of a good campaign.
There was one woman, Batilda, who was going to caucus but had a term paper on Darwin's "The Origin of Species." I offered to help her with it if she would stick around for caucus - even though it was waiting too long. While she was on the fence, the caucus began. The line, though, was still taking too long, so she wanted to leave, and I asked "If I can get you to the front of the line quicker, will you stay?" Then I proceeded to ask every person in line if she could get to the sign-in sheets quicker... and eventually, she did vote. I'm kinda proud/ashamed of that.
As a reward for my efforts, the head Obama volunteer from California gave me one of those HOPE posters that goes for $200 on E-bay. I plan to frame it and put it in my window, unless someone wants to hang it up prominently at the Hideout, Salvage Vanguard, or Coldtowne.
When I heard the results - that Clinton had won the primary on the popular vote (but not the delegates, necessarily) I'll admit, I was more than a little steamed. Look, I'm mad at her. I'm mad at her for everything she didn't do over the past 6 years. I'm mad at her for not realizing the damage Bush has done, not opposing it, and actively opposing the only candidate that might have a shot at repairing it.
But I'm also mad because -- I thought people might be smarter, you know?
At any rate, it looks like we're heading into a superdelegate battle or a brokered convention.
If I'm lucky enough to be a Democratic national delegate, and Hillary somehow gets the nomination, I'm going to boo. Loudly. At the convention. In front of every camera. And hold up signs that say: "Hillary: Did nothing for 6 years" on the front and "Nader" on the back.
See, alot of people were worried that if the other side got to be precinct secretary, that they would walk home with the ballots and throw away Obama or Hillary votes.
So in addition to making sure people didn't leave when the caucus took too long (I have a job! I have a term paper! I have a small, easily endangered child! I thought this was going to take 15 minutes!) the Obama supporters then had to convince people who caucused to stick around after the caucus to vote for precinct secretary, and because the Obama people were expecting tons of delegates (and we did get them, 19 to 9) we needed to convince people to stick around to be delegates or to be alternates so that we could have a full slate.
Let me tell you something about Obama's campaign on the ground. I showed up early to caucus - no plans on volunteering, but I ended up holding a sign, herding traffic so that people could park, making sure that people knew about the second vote, etc... even saved the life of a little kid who ran out into traffic with my Obama sign.
When people - or their kids - got hungry, the Obama campaign brought oatmeal bars. That's the sign of a good campaign.
There was one woman, Batilda, who was going to caucus but had a term paper on Darwin's "The Origin of Species." I offered to help her with it if she would stick around for caucus - even though it was waiting too long. While she was on the fence, the caucus began. The line, though, was still taking too long, so she wanted to leave, and I asked "If I can get you to the front of the line quicker, will you stay?" Then I proceeded to ask every person in line if she could get to the sign-in sheets quicker... and eventually, she did vote. I'm kinda proud/ashamed of that.
As a reward for my efforts, the head Obama volunteer from California gave me one of those HOPE posters that goes for $200 on E-bay. I plan to frame it and put it in my window, unless someone wants to hang it up prominently at the Hideout, Salvage Vanguard, or Coldtowne.
When I heard the results - that Clinton had won the primary on the popular vote (but not the delegates, necessarily) I'll admit, I was more than a little steamed. Look, I'm mad at her. I'm mad at her for everything she didn't do over the past 6 years. I'm mad at her for not realizing the damage Bush has done, not opposing it, and actively opposing the only candidate that might have a shot at repairing it.
But I'm also mad because -- I thought people might be smarter, you know?
At any rate, it looks like we're heading into a superdelegate battle or a brokered convention.
If I'm lucky enough to be a Democratic national delegate, and Hillary somehow gets the nomination, I'm going to boo. Loudly. At the convention. In front of every camera. And hold up signs that say: "Hillary: Did nothing for 6 years" on the front and "Nader" on the back.
- Brian Boyko Offline
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Oh my god, I didn't recognize you! I was too busy filming. You should have physically grabbed me!The Brigadier wrote:Brian, I was happy to see you at Scholtz's. I think you taped some of my drunken reverie on the dance floor.Brian Boyko wrote:I'm a precinct delegate. For Obama. 19 Obama delegates to 9 Clinton delegates.
Onto the county convention, March 29th.
- HerrHerr Offline
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I vote in a small precinct (only 5 delegates) so only about 60 people showed up total for the two caucuses. I was proud to see 11 neighbors from my small but civicly involved building. I knew and said hi to about 20 others and it was a nice community feel with a part of you just sort of out in the open that isn't normally.
The downtown district is heavily blue - only 7 people voted for Governor Rick Perry in the last election. I should point out that Governor Rick Perry and his wife live in my precinct as does Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and his wife. That's not exactly a strong endorsement. Anyway - the caucus was at city hall which wasn't sent any official forms so we just wrote long-hand on a piece of loose-leaf ripped from a notebook. Since the mayor, city manager, and other elected officials also live downtown - it was obvious to see who hadn't showed up.
Beyond that - I kind of enjoyed the one guy who voted democratic but wanted to cast his caucus vote for Ron Paul. 33 for Obama, 14 for Clinton and 1 for Ron Paul. Considering how the latter congressman has made a career of 434-1 votes, it seemed appropriate in an ironic way.
Obama supporters found 3 easy volunteers (all board members at the Avenue Lofts who thought it would be fun). Of the Clinton supporters - no one wanted to go to a convention (They were sort of at an impasse when I left). At the Republican caucus - they were all Ron Paul acolytes so they just sort of sat around and chatted and were polite about who should go to the convention since they were all willing.
No resolutions read off - though I would have liked to have been there for Danu's take on them.
Very interesting experience.
The downtown district is heavily blue - only 7 people voted for Governor Rick Perry in the last election. I should point out that Governor Rick Perry and his wife live in my precinct as does Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and his wife. That's not exactly a strong endorsement. Anyway - the caucus was at city hall which wasn't sent any official forms so we just wrote long-hand on a piece of loose-leaf ripped from a notebook. Since the mayor, city manager, and other elected officials also live downtown - it was obvious to see who hadn't showed up.
Beyond that - I kind of enjoyed the one guy who voted democratic but wanted to cast his caucus vote for Ron Paul. 33 for Obama, 14 for Clinton and 1 for Ron Paul. Considering how the latter congressman has made a career of 434-1 votes, it seemed appropriate in an ironic way.
Obama supporters found 3 easy volunteers (all board members at the Avenue Lofts who thought it would be fun). Of the Clinton supporters - no one wanted to go to a convention (They were sort of at an impasse when I left). At the Republican caucus - they were all Ron Paul acolytes so they just sort of sat around and chatted and were polite about who should go to the convention since they were all willing.
No resolutions read off - though I would have liked to have been there for Danu's take on them.
Very interesting experience.
Last edited by Miggy on March 5th, 2008, 10:19 am, edited 3 times in total.
- Justin D. Offline
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Really? I see it as a good thing for not just democrats, but the electoral process as a whole. Now, I'd rather less minute-by-minute reporting, but regular debates, as long as they're on actual issues, is a healthy thing. While many of us might look up a candidate's stands on different issues, there are many who won't and make their decisions based on what the candidates say in debates or interviews. Because of that, it's good to see them say something other than "thank you for the nomination" so early. It's the closest thing we have to instant-runoff voting. We're slowly whittling down the candidates state-by-state until we end up with one for each party.Roy Janik wrote:Williamson County and Travis County are both clearly going to Obama, if you look at the county results on CNN. Statewide, right now, Clinton has the lead, albeit slightly.
Whatever happens, it looks like Obama and Clinton will continue to slug it out over the next month. Blah. Bad for Democrats.
As it is, I had a little trouble deciding at the last minute. My mind was stuck on Hillary because of her plan to remove NCLB completely and her universal healthcare initiatives (which are quite different from Obama's). I decided on Obama at the end though. Although, I wanted to be the guy who voted for Bill Richardson.
Yes, because if you need to evacuate quickly, bicycles are the method to use.Aden wrote:The resolutions we read (special thanks to Danu Uribe for her incredibly delightful resolution reading skillz) and debated over were a little on the ridiculous side. All kinds of programs people would like to see publicly funded. They were ridiculous... and kind of awesome, like publicly funding a system of bike paths to unite all of the cities in the country... for fun in good times, and evacuation routes in bad.
- starkserious Offline
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I liked Richardson too. He was actually the most experienced candidate the Dems had, especially on foreign policy. Hell the guy negotiated with Saddam and that that fucked up dictator in North Korea. I liked Edwards a lot too, but his message was too angry and that eventually turns voters off.I decided on Obama at the end though. Although, I wanted to be the guy who voted for Bill Richardson.
Don't underestimate the Clintons. As soon as everyone is ready to write them off, they find a way to come back. That negative advertising does work to throw the other candidate off their game. Obama needs to get back on message and be ready to counter punch any crap they throw his way
Terrill...ific!
http://www.inthemoment.com
P.S."If you don't have a sense of humor, It's just not Funny."
http://www.inthemoment.com
P.S."If you don't have a sense of humor, It's just not Funny."