So how bad has John Kerry's latest comments hurt his chance at getting the Democratic Presidential bid in 2008?
I have to say, I'm thinking he shot himself in the foot with this one, and, as juvenile and funny as it is, this picture will resurface over and over again and has essentially sealed his fate:
So, thinking out to 2008, what are people's predictions for who will run?
Mine is a battle of the Bills. Bill Richardson versus Bill Frist versus Bill Stern in a write-in campagin.
"I do."
--Christina de Roos . . . Bain . . . Christina Bain
Obama has been hinting that he might run. I heard him on NPR promoting his new book and I was pleasantly surprised at how intelligent and down-to-earth he sounded.
He should probably wait til '12, though.
Plus, I predict "Obama = Osama" slogans from the right, because he's a "liberal" and "not tough on terror" and "doesn't believe in a fascist government using fear to shatter the Bill (Stern) of Rights"
I'd agree, but it just seems to be too soon for Obama. He's only been a Senator for what, 2 years or so?
Not that I mind an outsider, but I think the electorate finds too fast a climb to power to be intimidating.
"Outsiders" to Washington are typically still governors, generals and other powerful people with long track records. Insiders need to be there a little while to "prove" themselves. But, he is definitely testing the waters and upping national name recognition, which is smart.
Not that he'd be a bad choice, but when it comes right down to it, I bet the people will back off nominating him just yet. Maybe as a veep, though. Hmmm...
You know, if the Republicans are smart, they'll run a female veep. Everyone says Rice, but Kay Bailey would be a good choice, especially since she wanted the governorship, but took one for the team in not pursuing it.
He had no chance before and he has no chance now.
Granted, but you can't tell me his recent upswing in action doesn't mean that he wasn't looking to get back in the game. Generally speaking, the fastest way to destroy a political career is to lose the Presidential run. You can lose in the primaries, but if you're the guy your party chooses to go for the glory and you lose, they probably won't back you again anyway.
"I do."
--Christina de Roos . . . Bain . . . Christina Bain
mcnichol wrote:No disagreement here -- he's definitely been out and about -- just that I thought his chances were slim and none.
I honestly thought he was being more visible in an attempt to elicit the response/thought that I keep having "Christ, we came so close to having Not-Bush 2 years ago. Fuck."
You work your life away and what do they give?
You're only killing yourself to live
Bill Frist, (R-TN, Senate Majority Leader) though he's made a few bone-headed moves lately. Still, he is in a good position both within the party and with the hard-core conservative base, though he spins his appeal to include moderate conservatives. He's been my bet since 2002.
There's talk of Rice, but I don't know if she even wants it. And while she is in a position of power, her track record is too broad and can be spun against her too easy.
I think a dark horse no one is talking about may be Kay Bailey, though. Not least of which because of her sex and location (with border security being a growing issue, a border-state candidate is a good choice. Again, she'd be a smart VP choice). Another possiblity would be Giuliani, but I don't see him maintaining national appeal. A lot of people are starting to talk up Mitt Romney (MA gov) as well, but I don't know enough about him to comment.
Republicans won't back McCain, though, I can promise you that. There will probably be a very clear "successor" put forward early on and the party will try to rally around and focus support on that one person. Republicans have an interesting base and I think the party will seek to reinforce it and not risk splintering it too bad attacking one another in the primaries.
The Deomocrats, on the other hand, that's where the real blood bath will take place.
Hillary will get involved, to be sure, but she won't make it through the primaries. Obama will put his toes in the water, but will only take the plunge if there isn't a more established candidate, I bet. I'd love to see Richardson run, but I don't know how well he'd play nationally. I think he'd have that same Clinton-outsider appeal (as wuold Mark Warner of VA) and Richardson can be spun as a moderate and a visionary since he's always been a space supporter (he got the New Mexico spaceport deal up and running). Plus, his heritage would likely pull the growing Hispanic vote. Then there are Kerry, Edwards, and Gore, who may all try to give it another go (I'm betting Gore is out for good, but who knows). Then there's Biden, Feingold, heck even Pelosi, though she wouldn't stand a snowball's chance in hell and she knows it.
"I do."
--Christina de Roos . . . Bain . . . Christina Bain
I don't think he's shot himself in the foot at all - when he said "don't study and you get stuck in Iraq" he was referring to George Bush, who is now stuck in Iraq. It's pretty clear the right-wing guys are taking it incredibly out of context.
Giuliani, Mitt Romney and McCain will run as moderates but the GOP has a base that wants red meat all the goddamn time. No matter how much McCain has been sucking up to the christian base the last few years, they don't trust him and they will fight him.
As far as the conservatives, Frist has been an ineffectual turd in the senate. nobody likes weakness, which is why George Allen's shot at the presidential nomination is over before it started. Duncan Hunter's a goon.
The one to watch, I think, is Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee; he's got the cred and is pretty damn media-savvy. He's scary because if he can get the nomination he could win.
The democratic side will be as brutal, but I'd expect a more unified party than the GOP following the convention.
Kerry's gaffe rattled victory-desperate democrats more than anyone else. He has the stink of a loser, he hasn't learned from his mistakes, he'd never get my vote for the nomination.
Mark Warner would've been a safe bet, but he says he's out. Obama is one of my personal heroes, one of the smartest guys we have, but when all is said and done, he'll do the smart thing and get a little more experience under his belt. On the V.P. shortlist for sure, though.
Gore couldn't bring himself to campaign again. Neither could Wes Clark.
All eyes on Hillary. She could win, but many democrats are terrified of her running.
John Edwards has a good shot, and I'd jump on his bandwagon real quick. My dark horse favorite, though, is montana governor Brian Schweitzer.
"I don't use the accident. I deny the accident." - Jackson Pollock
